Historical information on the population

The need for population statistics is central to any form of planning. Without knowing who the planning is for, their numbers and characteristics particularly in terms of age, sex and nationality, as well as understanding the capability of the private and public institutions to provide for them, it is impossible to form sensible policies with regard to land uses, transport systems and their disposition and rates of development. Certain issues are common to all countries, but the Gulf states have characteristics which differentiate them from many other parts of the world. In particular, the relatively young population, the high proportion of males and the number of ex-patriates comprising the majority of the population need careful consideration if they are to be catered for effectively.

Two organisations have a particular responsibility for planning the State of Qatar. The Planning Council, which was established on the 6th June 1998, and has the responsibility for:

• preparing economic and social policies and plans in line with the principles and guidelines specified by the basic statute of the State, and following up the implementation of these policies and plans after they have been ratified by the Council of Ministers,
• expressing its views in the form of recommendations submitted to the Council of Ministers following their ratification by H.H. the Emir, and
• submitting a detailed annual report to the Emir on various projects included in the State֜s economic and social plan, explaining the extent and scope of success and achievements, and making recommendations resolving any difficulties.

and the Central Statistics Office, established in the 1980s.

The Planning Council is responsible for the strategic planning of the State, though its recommendations have to be approved by the Council of Ministers and H.H. the Emir. Their remit appears to concentrate on the operations and organisation of government structures, together with the coordination of information systems.

The Central Statistics Office is the central organisation for development and collation of the statistics that used to be the resonsibility of different Ministries. As such it has a pivotal role in the production of accurate figures on which the State can make decisions. One of the most important of these areas is that of population which has often been a little difficult to establish.

Early settlement

badu have used the Qatar peninsula for centuries, taking advantage of the sparse resources there to feed themselves and their families while maintaining their territorial interests with regard to other families in Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. This area should be read in conjunction with this in order to obtain a broader understanding. There may be minor inconsistencies…

Culturally, Qatar is related to the southern part of the Arabian/Persian Gulf and its adjoining mainland. For many centuries there seems to have been no real settlement in the peninsula though, by the end of the nineteenth century there were littoral settlements inhabited in the main by Arabs and immigrants from Persia, but little or nothing in the interior. This was the province of the badu tribes.

Although many of the badu tribes are now settled, there is still some movement. Incidentally, I should mention that the term badu is generally used to refer to those who are not settled. This is an increasing problem with regard to nationality which is discussed a little further here.

There have been two main groups of badu tribes using the Qatar peninsula:

• a group which moves in and out of the peninsula – the Bani Hajir, Al Manasir, Al Murrah, Al Awamir and Al ’Ajman, and
• one which moves within a relatively small part of the peninsula, the Al Na’im and, to a lesser extent, the Al Ka’aban.

The reason for this is historical, having to do with tribes and their inter-relationships.

The Bani Hajir

The Bani Hajir were the main badu group living in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia and their pattern of movement seems to have been governed both by their wide territorial interests as well as by the need to move relatively frequently.

The Al Manasir

The Al Manasir lived in the region covering the area between the south of the Qatar peninsula and the Buraimi oasis in what is now the United Arab Emirates. The Al Manasir were neighbours of both the Bani Hajir and Al Murrah and based themselves in the Liwah oasis – between the Buraimi oasis and the Qatar peninsula – in summer, and the Qatar peninsula in winter.

The Al Murrah

Further inland from the Qatar peninsula was the area used by the Al Murrah who inhabited the south part of the Al Hasa district, and who lived deeper into the Saudi peninsula than the Bani Hajir.

The Al Awamir

The Al Awamir were a tribe living in the area between the Oman and towards the Rub’a al Khali, south of the Liwa oasis.

The Al Ajman

I should also mention the Al Ajman, a tribe living in Al Hasa in the area north and west of the Bani Hajir and who were occasional visitors to the Qatar peninsula.

The Al Na’im

By the mid eighteenth century the main settlements in Qatar were those associated with two tribes, the Al Thani and the Al Khalifah. Very crudely the Al Thani, settled at Al Doha and Al Wakrah, controlled the east side of the peninsula but the Al Khalifah, settled on Al Zubarah controlled the north-west, and the Al Na’im were associated with the Al Khalifah.

The Al Na’im were related to the The Al Na’im of Oman but left centuries previously at the invitation of the Al ’Utub, the tribe from which the Al Khalifah came. They settled in the Qatar peninsula, wintering on Qatar but, in summer, some of them moving to the north of Bahrain and some to near Al Doha.

With time the Al Na’im stayed on the Qatar peninsula all year though this was only after 1937 when there was a split in the tribe. The Al Ramzan who had sided with the Al Thanis remained on the peninsula and the Al Jabr, who sided with the Al Khalifa of Bahrain in their disagreement over Al Zubarah – but lost, emigrated via Bahrain to Al Hasa, eventually returning to their traditional grounds in the north-west of Qatar where they moved around during the year. In summer they stayed around their wells near the coast and, in winter, moved further inland to graze their animals.

With reference to many of the tribes it is interesting that some of their members still remember their tribal histories and harbour feelings that they should enjoy a more important place in the peninsula’s society than they feel they do. This, presumably, is one of the many issues which the ruling family must bear in mind in their dealings with individuals and the history and relationships each represents.

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Qatar’s population

The population of Qatar, in common with most of its neighbours, was relatively small until the explosion caused by the development of oil and gas, and the accompanying immigration of expatriates in large numbers to service the activities associated with the development of those resources. In 1939 there was estimated to be a total population of about 28,000, which can be compared with the estimates made in 1908 by Lorimer of between 26,000 and 27,000 of whom 20,000 were nationals. The group accounting for much of this increase were thought to be of Persian origin. However, the Second World War with the concomitant regional instability and economic hardship saw the population reduce through the thirties and forties to about 16,000 by 1949.

Here, to the side, is a diagram showing the location of the main tribes who settled in the Qatar peninsula. It is based on the work of Lorimer and I have very much simplified the diagram in Ferdinand’s work on the badu of Qatar from which it is taken. The diagram illustrates the disposition of the main settled families, but bear in mind that the peninsula by this time was under the control of the al-Thani family who were settled in Rayyan, Doha and Wakrah.

It is significant that the main tribes are settled on the east of the peninsula, though with the exception of the north-west of the peninsula where Bahrein still had influence, and the east side of the peninsula which was more inaccessible by sea.

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The inhabitants of Qatar

Tribe or community	Where found in Qatar – date	1908	1939
Aynayn (Al bu)	Wakrah	2000
Ali (Al bin)	Doha	1,750	1,750
Amamarah	Doha and Wakrah	200	200
Arabs of Nejd	Doha and Wakrah	500	500
Baharinah	Doha and Wakrah	500	500
Baqaqalah	Doha	50	50
Dawasir	Doha	150	150
Hamaydat	Lusail and Dhaayn	250	250
Huwalah	Doha and Wakrah	2,000	2,000
Khalayfat	Wakrah	850	850
Kibisah	Khor Hassan, Fuwayrat, Hadiyah and Sumaismah	700	700
Kawarah (Al bu)	Sumaismah, Dhaayan and Fuwayrat	2,500	2,500
Maadhid	Doha, Wakrah and Lusail	875	875
Madhahakah	Dhaayn	a few	a few
Mahanadah	Khor Shaqiq and Dhakhirah	2,500	2,500
Mananaah	Abu Dhaluf and Doha	400	400
Maqla (Al bin)	Wakrah	50	50
Musallam (Al)	Doha, Fuwayrat and Wakrah	40	40
Negroes (free)	Doha and Wakrah	2,000	2,000
Negroes (slaves, but not living in their masters’ houses)	Doha and Wakrah	4,000	4,000
Negroes (slaves living with their owners)	Are reckoned in this table to the tribe in which they are owned
Persians	Doha and Wakrah	425	5,000
Sadah	Ruways and Doha	350	350
Sudan	Doha	400	400
Sulutah	Doha	3,250	2,500
Yas (Bani) of the Al bu Falasah and Qubaysat sections	Doha and Wakrah	125	125

Taken from The Creation of Qatar

By 1945 the population of Qatar had dropped to around 25,000, firstly in response to the finding of oil in Bahrein in 1932 and, secondly – and more particularly – as a direct result of the trade blockade imposed by Bahrein because of their dispute with Qatar’s Abdullah bin Qasim over the ownership of Zubarah on the Qatar mainland – land the Bahreinis claimed as theirs despite the decision of the British Government in 1865 confirming it as belonging to Qatar.

In 1971, immediately prior to Independence, a British Government assisted census was made in Qatar estimating that the total population was 120,000 of whom 42,000 were Qataris. This figure represented a percentage average increase of about 2.1% for the Qatari population and presumably represented a strongly increasing percentage as Qataris returned to the new wealth available in Qatar and the live births over death rates increased. The census was not published. A number of other estimates were made around this time giving a population of between 79,000 and 126,000 and there have been constant difficulties caused by there not being an accurate, published census usable in planning the development of the country.

A sample survey was made in 1982 by the Central Statistics Office and followed up in 1986 by a full census, though the number of Qataris was not disclosed. The published census figures gave the total population in 1986 as being 369,079 – a 200% increase in fifteen years. A 1990 estimate raised this slightly to 371,000 of whom 70,000 were nationals and, in July 1992, another estimate raised the figure to 484,387. These figures were obtained from the Library of Congress where more details can be found. There are two significant points to make: firstly that, due to the large number of expatriate workers in the country, there is a relatively high male population – about two thirds are male – and, secondly, the natural increase in population for 1989 calculated on births over deaths is 29.3 per 1,000, a high rate for a developing country.

It is evident from the foregoing that the population numbers are a little dubious, and that the rates of increase are difficult to calculate or, indeed, rely on. However, it has to be admitted that the figures come from different sources and there is no reason not to believe that the Central Statistics Office does not have a grasp on the correct figures, and that they are being used in planning for the future.

It is important to know how large the population is for the purposes of providing for them but, at the end of the nineteen eighties, the Qatari population – for whom a wider range of provisions are made – was not easy to calculate. Nor was it easy to see how the developing aspects of the region would have their affect upon the future total population of Qatar. Strategic planning was a problem.

Although a large number of expatriates left due to the economic difficulties the country faced following the drop in the price of oil, the CSO stated that the increasing Qatari population, together with a net increase in expatriates, continued to expand the overall population to something over 400,000 in mid-1989. If this was so then it was likely to be at the lower service areas of the population where individuals obtain a relatively low wage.

The American State Department estimated that Qatar had a population in 2002 of about 650,000, of whom 150,000 are Qatari nationals. This implies a growth of slightly less than 4.1% on the 1970 Census figure – a lower rate than any of the scenarios considered by the first planning team to begin the process of planning for the future of the State in the early seventies. Their latest figure is estimated at 824,729 for July 2008.

The Planning Council stated that the 1997 census enumerated a population of 522,000 and the 2004 census – taken on the 16th March 2004 – showed an increase to 744,000 giving an annual increase of 6% from 1997 to 2004, ascribed to the strong economic growth.

The population of Qatar is mostly urban nowadays. 88% of the population is urban with 84% of the population concentrated in Doha and Rayyan, the other two main towns being Al Wakrah and Umm Said, both of them to the south of Doha.

The 1986 census also gave a snapshot of the population profile showing that two-thirds of it was male and that the age breakdown was:

less than 15	15-29	30-44	45-59	over 60
27.8%	29.3%	32.3%	8.6%	2.0%

The General Secretariat for Development Planning has published the following, taken from the 1986 and 1997 Population and Housing Censuses:

	1986	1997	2004
Population
Population	369,000	522,000	744,029
Male	248,000	342,000	496,382
Female	121,000	180,000	247,647
Labour force	201,000	286,000
Male	181,000	246,000
Female	20,000	40,000
Social and vital statistics
Total registered live births	12,118	12,200	12,856
Male	6,186	6,261	6,564
Female	5,932	5,939	6,292
Total deaths	1,210	1,220	1,311
Male	831	855	896
Female	379	365	415
Natural increase	10,908	10,980	11,545
Marriages	2,194	2,351	2,550
Divorces	566	732	790

What is significant about the published statistics is that there is no breakdown between the national and expatriate populations, figures which are vital in their use to an effective planning system, though an area where there have been difficulties expressed throughout the Gulf.

The figures also contain eccentricities which might not be readily understood. For instance, the relatively low figures ascribed to marriages is likely to be because the majority of marriages will be between nationals or with a national as one of the partners.

It may be that the statistics are unavailable to those following links as I have not been able to update many of them. At the same time there seems to be some conflict between statistics I have previously taken from the site and those recently looked at. For instance, there are an interesting group of tables setting out the population statistics for those of fifteen years of age and over. Here is a summary which reveals interesting trends:

Population 15+ by relation to workforce, nationality and sex

		1986	1997	* 2001	2004	* 2007	* 2008	* 2009
Qatari	Male	26,879	41,863	30,345	54,482	40,418	42,863	45,410
	Female	27,624	43,039	10,851	55,923	21,289	24,829	25,463
	Total Qatari	54,503	84,902	41,196	110,405	61,707	67,692	70,873
non-Qatari	Male	168,363	229,900	237,981	356,734	686,454	1,002,405	1,092,970
	Female	43,761	69,516	33,634	109,272	79,641	97,968	98,420
	Total non-Qatari	212,124	299,416	271,615	466,006	766,095	1,100,373	1,191,390
	Total male	195,242	271,763	268,326	411,216	726,872	1,045,268	1,138,380
	Total female	71,385	112,555	44,485	165,195	100,930	122,797	123,883
	Grand total	266,627	384,318	312,810	576,411	827,802	1,168,065	1,262,263

* These columns taken from different tables of the Qatar Information Exchange site – ‘Economically active population (15+) by nationality, sex and economic activity’ and should, but may not be, directly comparable with the other columns.

More detailed information is given on this chart though it should be treated with care as it deals only with the years 1986, 1997 and 2004.

There are a number of points to note in the figures given above. The first is that the figures for Qataris for the years 1997 and 2004 seem inconsistent, and I have no information that would explain them. Guesses might usefully be made, but I shall not do so here.

The next thing to notice is that the percentage of Qataris to non-Qataris in the workforce for 2009 were 4.15% and 25.87% for men and women respectively, and with a total of 5.95% Qataris to non-Qataris in the total working population. Put differently, over 94% of the working population are not nationals.

The Qatari workforce of fifteen and over in 2009 had a preponderance of males to females of around 9:5, while the non-Qatari workforce – as you would expect – had a considerably larger proportion of around 10:1. Of this non-Qatari workforce, the proportion of men to women is increasing reflecting, for the most part, the burgeoning of the construction industry. However, as you would expect, there is more interest in the details.

Economically active population (15+) by nationality, sex and economic activity for the year 2009

Nationality and sex

Qataris

Non-Qataris

Total

Statistical group	M	F	M	F	M	F
Agriculture, hunting and forestry	0	0	16,955	0	16,955	0
Fishing	0	0	2,822	0	2,822	0
Mining and quarrying	4,445	727	54,993	2,609	59,438	3,336
Manufacturing	842	78	107,538	328	108,380	406
Electricity, gas and water supply	1,754	306	4,054	44	5,808	350
Construction	864	64	554,740	3,398	555,604	3,462
Wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and households goods	708	94	133,275	4,281	133,983	4,375
Hotels and restaurants	16	0	20,272	4,652	20,288	4,652
Transport, storage and communications	1,072	632	46,988	7,208	48,060	7,840
Financial intermediation	1,437	1,308	10,389	2,288	11,826	3,596
Real estate, renting and business activities	813	225	43,222	2,066	44,035	2,291
Public administration and defence, compulsory social security	28,122	8,424	27,325	937	55,447	9,361
Education	1,809	9,633	11,420	8,243	13,229	17,876
Health and social work	1,653	3,423	12,677	12,337	14,330	15,760
Other community, social and personal services	1,841	549	12,347	1,650	14,188	2,199
Domestic services	0	0	32,195	48,147	32,195	48,147
Regional and international organizations and bodies	34	0	1,758	232	1,792	232
Total	45,410	25,463	1,092,970	98,420	1,138,380	123,883

While the construction industry is the largest of the seventeen statistical groupings comprising 44.29% of the 2009 workforce of 1,262,263, it is significant that only 928 male and female Qataris, or 0.17%, work in this group. Compare that with the group which includes public administration, defence and compulsory social security where 56.4% of the total of 64,808 are Qataris, this supporting a number of views reflected in the statistics relating to tertiary education.

By the end of 2013, statistics were made available from the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics relating to the labour force and noting that, at the end of the year there were 1,545,458 persons economically active – this from the 1,761,667 who were aged fifteen and above, and representing 87.7%.

Workforce – aged 15 and over

		Active	Inactive	Total
Qatari
Men		64,220	25,775	89,995
Women		32,004	58,612	90,616
	Sub-total	96,224	84,387	180,611
Non-Qatari
Men		1,287,680	26,571	1,314,251
Women		161,554	105,251	266,805
	Sub-total	1,449,234	131,822	1,581,056
Total
Men		1,351,900	52,346	1,404,246
Women		193,558	163,863	357,421
	Sub-total	1,545,458	216,209	1,761,667

Note that approximately 10% of the work force is Qatari, and that there are twice as many Qatari males working compared with Qatari females, the reverse being approximately the case with Qataris who are inactive.

However, of those who are economically inactive it is significant that there are totals of 81,519 students and 107,173 homemakers, as the report terms them.

Of the Qatari students, there are 22,618 females compared with 14,465 males, which appears to illustrate how popular tertiary education is for women compared with men. Of non-Qatari students the corresponding numbers are 19,769 females and 24,667 males. While there is almost parity for Qatari and non-Qatari females in education, the figures suggest two important characteristics. Firstly, that it is likely to be more difficult for women to enter and remain in the country for their education and, secondly, that male Qatari students are in a significant minority not only to female students, as noted, but particularly to male non-Qatari students.

Interestingly the survey calls out the percentages of unemployed Qataris who would be willing to work in the private sector. That this should have been called out is indicative of concerns in government for a more natural distribution of nationals within the economy, an issue common to most of the region.

Willingness for unemployed Qataris with secondary education to work in the private sector

		Males	Females	Total
Willing		146	178	324
Unwilling		322	826	1,148
Total		468	1,004	1,472

Reasons given for unwillingness to work in the private sector

First it is has to be stated that it is not known how the questions were established and applied, a process which can easily skew results and influence policies derived from them.

Note that although the proportion of men unwilling to work in the private sector is given as a little over 2:1, the unwillingness of women to work in the private sector is more than double that – well over 4:1. This is likely to be due to a number of factors. The most obvious and traditional reservation might be expected to be the unwillingness of women to mix with the wider society, particularly expatriates which might generate a certain amount of disrepute; it may also be due to women anticipating their future family life disrupted; and it might be that they are reflecting not necessarily their own feelings but those of their families and social groups.

But it is instructive to see the reasons given in the survey, illustrated in this pie chart. Carried out in interviews with 450 people, 737 responses were noted. The replies indicate the apparent overwhelming concern with work practices, three-quarters of the responses being concerned for the days, hours of work and the timings of work in the private sector. If the questions were not neutral in their effect, if this is an accurate reflection, and if it is based on the respondents’ comprehensive understanding of the realistic operations of the private sector, it must be of small comfort to government.

more to be written…

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Population statistics for 2008-2024

The population of Qatar in 1989 was around 460,000. Since October 2008, the Qatar Statistics Authority has been publishing population figures on their website. The manner in which they do so changed in October 2015 and now is given a month in arrears. However, you will see that there has been a considerable leap in the population, and that the proportion of males to females is around three to one. The Authority’s monthly preliminary figures for the population by month are given here with a percentage difference from both the previous month and the previous year:

	Males	Females	Total	% month	% year
2008
October	1,185,575	355,555	1,541,130
November	1,210,566	358,618	1,569,174	+ 1.82 %
December	1,203,381	350,348	1,553,729	– 0.98 %
2009
January	1,219,191	341,786	1,560,977	+ 0.47 %
February	1,256,955	368,768	1,625,723	+ 4.15 %
March	1,274,349	372,743	1,647,092	+ 1.31 %
April	1,275,419	374,720	1,650,139	+ 0.18 %
May	1,277,551	375,057	1,652,608	+ 0.15 %
June	1,258,852	350,051	1,608,903	+ 2.64 %
July	1,204,753	297,621	1,502,374	– 6.62 %
August	1,247,644	349,908	1,597,552	+ 6.34 %
September	1,248,668	375,056	1,623,724	+ 1.64 %
October	1,278,308	388,545	1,666,853	+ 2.66 %
November	1,225,487	354,563	1,580,050	– 5.21 %	+ 0.69 %
December	1,254,092	377,636	1,631,728	+ 3.27 %	+ 5.02 %
2010
January	1,282,978	398,121	1,681,099	+ 3.03 %	+ 7.70 %
February	1,281,131	397,979	1,679,110	– 0.12 %	+ 3.28 %
March	1,279,547	397,498	1,677,045	– 0.12 %	+ 1.82 %
April	1,270,968	399,421	1,670,389	– 0.40 %	+ 1.23 %
May	1,274,013	404,555	1,678,568	+ 0.49 %	+ 1.57 %
June	not available	not available	not available
July	not available	not available	not available
August	1,213,556	365,429	1,578,985	– 5.93 %	– 1.16 %
September	1,235,716	406,519	1,642,235	+ 3.77 %	+ 1.14 %
October	1,246,593	417,682	1,664,275	+ 1.34 %	– 0.15 %
November	1,231,565	415,479	1,647,044	– 1.04 %	+ 4.24 %
December	1,228,635	408,808	1,637,443	– 0.58 %	+ 0.35 %
2011
January	1,258,462	427,565	1,686,027	+ 2.97 %	+ 0.29 %
February	1,259,597	425,988	1,685,585	– 0.03 %	+ 0.39 %
March	1,254,812	424,021	1,678,833	– 0.40 %	+ 0.11 %
April	1,261,969	430,293	1,692,262	+ 0.80 %	+ 1.31 %
May	1,269,633	433,815	1,703,448	+ 0.66 %	+ 1.48 %
June	1,234,683	390,078	1,624,761	– 4.62 %
July	1,225,258	374,065	1,599,323	– 1.57 %
August	1,182,025	371,785	1,553,810	– 2.85 %	– 1.59 %
September	1,263,225	437,994	1,701,219	+ 9.49 %	+ 3.59 %
October	1,276,976	445,540	1,722,516	+ 1.25 %	+ 3.50 %
November	1,277,186	445,832	1,723,018	+ 0.03 %	+ 4.61 %
December	1,271,194	436,562	1,707,756	– 0.89 %	+ 4.29 %
2012
January	1,301,089	458,138	1,759,227	+ 3.01 %	+ 4.34 %
February	1,303,488	456,733	1,760,221	+ 0.06 %	+ 4.43 %
March	1,314,672	458,882	1,773,554	+ 0.76 %	+ 5.64 %
April	1,327,091	465,043	1,792,134	+ 1.05 %	+ 5.90 %
May	1,330,581	465,247	1,795,828	+ 0.21 %	+ 5.42 %
June	1,303,064	419,374	1,722,438	– 4.09 %
July	1,303,829	409,437	1,713,266	– 0.53 %
August	1,278,644	408,529	1,687,173	– 1.52 %	+ 8.58 %
September	1,363,688	480,588	1,844,276	+ 9.31 %	+ 8.41 %
October	1,310,065	447,475	1,757,540	– 4.70 %	+ 2.03 %
November	1,362,611	482,864	1,845,475	+ 5.00 %	+ 7.11 %
December	1,364,063	472,613	1,836,676	– 0.48 %	+ 7.55 %
2013
January	1,405,164	498,283	1,903,447	+ 3.64 %	+ 8.20 %
February	1,416,727	500,389	1,917,116	+ 0.72 %	+ 8.91 %
March	1,423,620	497,178	1,920,798	+ 0.19 %	+ 8.30 %
April	1,437,392	507,561	1,944,953	+ 1.26 %	+ 8.53 %
May	1,451,674	511,450	1,963,124	+ 0.93 %	+ 9.32 %
June	1,441,215	475,211	1,916,426	– 2.38 %	+ 11.26 %
July	1,430,720	449,823	1,880,543	– 1.87 %	+ 9.76 %
August	1,419,678	445,139	1,864,817	– 0.84 %	+ 10.53 %
September	1,509,211	525,895	2,035,106	+ 9.13 %	+ 10.35 %
October	1,499,976	524,731	2,024,707	– 0.51 %	+ 15.20 %
November	1,534,376	533,674	2,068,050	+ 2.14 %	+ 12.06 %
December	1,530,101	515,138	2,045,239	– 1.10 %	+ 11.36 %
2014
January	1,525,575	491,001	2,016,576	– 1.40 %	+ 5.94 %
February	1,573,690	542,710	2,116,400	+ 4.95 %	+ 10.39 %
March	1,597,403	546,698	2,144,101	+ 1.31 %	+ 11.63 %
April	1,607,228	548,218	2,155,446	+ 0.53 %	+ 10.82 %
May	1,622,065	551,970	2,174,035	+ 0.86 %	+ 10.74 %
June	1,621,281	530,464	2,151,745	– 1.03 %	+ 12.28 %
July	1,495,752	424,210	1,919,962	– 10.77 %	+ 2.10 %
August	1,584,535	492,822	2,077,357	+ 8.20 %	+ 11.40 %
September	1,634,088	553,238	2,187,326	+ 5.29 %	+ 7.48 %
October	1,654,720	561,780	2,216,500	+ 1.33 %	+ 9.47 %
November	1,697,727	571,945	2,269,672	+ 2.40 %	+ 9.75 %
December	1,686,228	549,203	2,235,431	– 1.51 %	+ 9.30 %
2015
January	1,693,455	531,128	2,224,583	– 0.49 %	+ 10.31 %
February	1,749,602	584,427	2,334,029	+ 4.92 %	+ 10.28 %
March	1,764,358	582,374	2,346,732	+ 0.54 %	+ 9.45 %
April	1,759,391	583,334	2,342,725	– 0.17 %	+ 8.69 %
May	1,781,882	592,978	2,374,860	+ 1.37 %	+ 9.24 %
June	1,777,116	567,441	2,344,557	– 1.28 %	+ 8.96 %
July	1,663,823	456,306	2,120,129	– 9.57 %	+ 10.43 %
August	1,751,277	537,650	2,288,927	+ 7.20 %	+ 10.18 %
September	1,766,817	580,452	2,347,269	+ 2.55 %	+ 7.31 %
October	1,812,418	600,065	2,412,483	+ 2.78 %	+ 8.84 %
November	1,851,382	612,078	2,463,460	+ 2.11 %	+ 8.54 %
December	1,833,697	587,358	2,421,055	– 1.72 %	+ 8.30 %
2016
January	1,853,001	570,174	2,423,175	+ 0.09 %	+ 8.93 %
February	1,920,107	625,496	2,545,603	+ 5.05 %	+ 9.06 %
March	1,917,939	609,055	2,526,994	– 0.73 %	+ 7.68 %
April	1,936,536	622,731	2,559,267	+ 1.28 %	+ 9.24 %
May	1,956,424	631,140	2,587,564	+ 1.11 %	+ 8.96 %
June	1,899,563	577,550	2,477,113	– 4.27 %	+ 5.65 %
July	1,837,797	488,668	2,326,465	– 6.08 %	+ 9.73 %
August	1,870,641	530,957	2,401,598	+ 3.23 %	+ 4.92 %
September	1,930,957	622,436	2,553,393	+ 6.32 %	+ 8.78 %
October	1,973,656	637,866	2,611,522	+ 2.28 %	+ 8.25 %
November	1,996,612	640,690	2,637,302	+ 0.99 %	+ 7.06 %
December	1,974,699	622,754	2,597,453	– 1.51 %	+ 7.29 %
2017
January	1,971,536	604,645	2,576,181	– 0.82 %	+ 6.31 %
February	2,018,190	654,832	2,673,022	+ 3.76 %	+ 5.01 %
March	2,010,122	649,139	2,659,261	– 0.51 %	+ 5.23 %
April	2,018,025	657,497	2,675,522	+ 0.61 %	+ 4.54 %
May	2,032,155	668,384	2,700,539	+ 0.94 %	+ 4.37 %
June *	1,946,555	599,265	2,545,820	– 5.73 %	+ 2.77 %
July *	1,923,933	547,986	2,471,919	– 2.90 %	+ 6.25 %
August *	1,876,892	569,436	2,446,328	– 1.04 %	+ 1.86 %
September *	1,974,041	660,193	2,634,234	+ 7.68 %	+ 3.17 %
October *	2,000,514	667,901	2,668,415	+ 1.30 %	+ 2.18 %
November *	2,010,017	672,579	2,682,596	+ 0.53 %	+ 1.72 %
December *	1,986,013	655,656	2,641,669	– 1.53 %	+ 1.70 %
2018
January *	1,989,237	654,491	2,643,728	+ 0.08 %	+ 2.62 %
February *	2,017,612	682,778	2,700,390	+ 2.14 %	+ 1.02 %
March *	2,012,745	672,308	2,685,053	– 0.57 %	+ 0.97 %
April *	2,019,725	687,092	2,706,817	+ 0.81 %	+ 1.17 %
May *	2,034,011	697,899	2,731,910	+ 0.93 %	+ 1.16 %
June *	1,954,419	626,315	2,580,734	– 5.53 %	+ 1.37 %
July *	1,903,888	546,397	2,450,285	– 5.05 %	– 0.88 %
August *	1,931,077	630,566	2,561,643	+ 4.54 %	+ 4.71 %
September *	2,024,771	693,115	2,717,886	+ 6.10 %	+ 3.18 %
October *	2,044,987	698,945	2,743,932	+ 0.96 %	+ 2.83 %
November *	2,053,575	703,862	2,757,437	+ 0.49 %	+ 2.79 %
December *	2,015,284	659,036	2,674,320	– 3.01 %	+ 1.24 %
2019
January *	2,055,002	711,457	2,766,459	+ 3.45 %	+ 4.64 %
February *	2,059,355	713,592	2,772,947	+ 0.23 %	+ 2.69 %
March *	2,051,772	708,814	2,760,586	– 0.45 %	+ 2.81 %
April *	2,049,544	722,750	2,772,294	+ 0.42 %	+ 2.42 %
May *	2,022,626	717,853	2,740,479	– 1.15 %	+ 0.31 %
June *	1,982,570	656,087	2,638,657	– 3.72 %	+ 2.24 %
July *	1,906,685	568,378	2,475,063	– 6.20 %	+ 1.01 %
August *	1,974,934	692,004	2,666,938	+ 7.75 %	+ 4.11 %
September **	2,019,789	727,493	2,747,282	+ 3.01 %	+ 1.08 %
October **	2,022,766	730,279	2,753,045	+ 0.21 %	+ 0.33 %
November *	2,037,580	736,305	2,773,885	+ 0.76 %	+ 0.60 %
December *	1,995,175	692,696	2,687,871	– 3.10 %	+ 0.51 %
2020
January *	2,028,289	744,932	2,773,221	+ 3.18 %	+ 0.24 %
February *	2,032,659	749,447	2,782,106	+ 0.32 %	+ 0.33 %
March *	2,037,419	758,065	2,795,484	+ 0.48 %	+ 1.26 %
April *	2,044,946	760,256	2,805,202	+ 0.35 %	+ 1.19 %
May *	2,046,516	761,289	2,807,805	+ 0.09 %	+ 2.46 %
June *	2,034,054	760,094	2,794,148	– 0.49 %	+ 5.89 %
July *	1,997,750	751,465	2,749,215	– 1.61 %	+ 12.2 %
August *	1,981,253	754,454	2,735,707	– 0.49 %	+ 2.58 %
September *	1,969,062	754,592	2,723,624	– 0.44 %	– 0.86 %
October *	1,960,876	756,484	2,717,360	– 0.23 %	– 1.30 %
November *	1,957,765	758,154	2,715,919	– 0.05 %	– 2.09 %
December *	1,936,214	748,115	2,684,329	– 1.16 %	– 0.13 %
2021
January *	1,919,138	749,673	2,668,811	– 0.58 %	– 3.76 %
February	1,909,878	750,910	2,660,788	– 0.30 %	– 4.36 %
March	1,895,425	746,687	2,642,112	– 0.70 %	– 5.49 %
April	1,895,466	751,388	2,646,854	+ 0.18 %	– 5.64 %
May	1,881,346	747,166	2,628,512	– 0.69 %	– 6.39 %
June	1,825,399	679,511	2,504,910	– 4.70 %	– 10.35 %
July	1,756,026	623,985	2,380,011	– 4.99 %	– 13.43 %
August	1,849,927	722,271	2,572,198	+ 8.08 %	– 5.98 %
September	1,886,323	749,755	2,636,078	+ 2.48 %	– 3.21 %
October	1,903,488	755,881	2,659,329	+ 0.88 %	– 2.14 %
November	1,932,274	761,027	2,693,301	+ 1.28 %	– 0.83 %
December	1,941,660	735,341	2,677,001	– 0.61 %	– 0.27 %
2022
January	2,011,530	780,395	2,791,925	+ 4.29 %	+ 4.61 %
February	2,029,353	782,421	2,811,774	+ 0.71 %	+ 5.67 %
March	2,043,351	782,935	2,826,286	+ 0.52 %	+ 6.97 %
April	2,008,241	765,357	2,773,598	– 1.86 %	+ 4.79 %
May ***	2,065,451	787,435	2,852,886	+ 2.86 %	+ 8.54 %
June	1,984,812	672,521	2,657,333	– 6.85 %	– 6.08 %
July	1,995,118	663,193	2,658,311	+ 0.04 %	+ 11.69 %
August	2,136,084	801,716	2,937,800	+ 10.51 %	+ 14.21 %
September	2,167,885	817,144	2,985,029	+ 1.61 %	+ 13.24 %
October	2,185,629	834,451	3,020,080	+ 1.17 %	+ 13.57 %
November ****	2,110,657	780,688	2,891,345	– 4.26 %	+ 7.32 %
December ****	2,101,283	807,851	2,909,134	+ 0.62 %	+ 8.67 %
2023
January	2,125,676	829,271	2,954 947	+ 1.57 %	+ 9.71 %
February	2,147,118	835,513	2,982,631	+ 0.94 %	+ 6.08 %
March	2,162,870	842,199	3,005,069	+ 0.75 %	+ 6.33 %
April	2,123,703	832,558	2,956,261	– 1.62 %	+ 6.59 %
May	2,160,061	841,720	3,001,781	+ 1.54 %	+ 5.22 %
June	1,976,922	679,110	2,656,032	– 11.52 %	– 0.05 %
July	2,024,428	679,544	2,703,972	+ 1.8 %	+ 1.72 %
August	2,143,571	825,866	2,969,437	+ 9.82 %	+ 1.08 %
September	2,199,760	857,747	3,057,507	+ 2.97 %	+ 2.43 %
October	2,217,862	867,225	3,085,087	+ 0.90 %	+ 2.15 %
November	2,214,745	870,162	3,084,907	– 0.01 %	+ 6.69 %
December	2,165,015	800,937	2,965,952	– 3.86 %	+ 1.95 %
2024
January	2,227,763	890,451	3,118,214	+ 5.13 %	+ 7.85 %
February	2,224,795	904,188	3,128,983	+ 0.35 %	+ 4.91 %
March	2,212,468	907,121	3,119,589	– 0.30 %	+ 3.81 %
April	2,190,411	908,455	3,098,866	– 0.66 %	+ 4.82 %
May	2,179,181	901,623	3,080,804	– 0.58 %	+ 2.63 %
June	2,070,164	787,658	2,857,822	– 7.24 %	+ 7.6 %
July	2,044,163	743,412	2,787,575	– 2.46 %	+ 3.09 %
August	2,162,447	891,918	3,054,365	+ 9.57 %	+ 2.86 %

representing the number of persons of all ages and nationalities within the boundaries of the State of Qatar at the end of the respective month. The first percentage given is for the change from the previous month total; the second for the year. The figures do not include:

• Qatari nationals who were outside the State boundaries at the end of the relevent month, and
• non-Qataris with residency permits who were outside the State’s boundaries at the end of the relevant month.

January

maroon font colour denotes the Gregorian months within which Ramadan falls

Note that there is a significant drop in females within the State over the hot, summer months, and a smaller dip at Christmas. It should also be noted that Qataris try to ensure they are in Qatar during the holy month of Ramadan.

By September 2015, the number of females in the total population was just under a quarter – i.e. the male to female proportions are 3 to 1.

Note that, as of July 2016 it appears that the authorities are no longer giving the figures for males and females in the population. No reason has been given for this.

* Note that, in June 2017, a blockade was imposed on Qatar by the states of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrein, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives. The requirements of the blockade may have an affect on subsequent population figures.

This blockade appears to have been lifted at the beginning of January 2021.

** Note that, at the end of September and the beginning of October 2019, the World Athletics Championships were held in Doha, which may have affected the monthly figures. Other events are held through the year but it is unlikely they would have a similar effect.

*** These figures differ from those given at the beginning of June but now reflect the latest government figures.

**** The World Football Cup games are likely to affect the population figures in the months leading up to, during and after the games which are scheduled to be held between 2022.11.20 and 2022.12.18.

There is one important anomaly to mention, and that is related to the figures given for the 2010 and 2015 Censuses, the latter being referred to as a ‘Mini-Census’.

The figures given for the monthly population statistics for April 2010 are the same as those given for the 2010 Census:

2010 Census and monthly statistics	Males	Females	Total
April 2010	1,270,968	399,421	1,670,389

Yet the figures given for the monthly population statistics for April 2015, and those given for the 2015 Mini-Census, are substantially different:

April 2015 monthly statistics	Males	Females	Total
April 2015	1,759,391	583,334	2,342,725
‘Glance from the 2015 Mini-Census’
20th April 2015	1,816,981	587,795	2,404,776

Unfortunately I have not been able to understand how this has come about. Perhaps somebody would let me know…

While the size of the population is of interest, what is perhaps more significant is the way in which the population is distributed by age and gender. These three bell diagrams illustrate the numbers of males and female within the population by age groups.

Regrettably there are no figures published for the numbers of the national population, so it is not possible to see the numbers of expatriates that comprise the labour force – essentially both construction and management. However, the bell diagrams illustrate to some extent the significant profiles of men and women of working age in the population, though it is evident that the male workforce is larger than the female workforce, as you would expect. The exaggerated profile of the population of working age demonstrates the effect of the expatriate work force in Qatar, and illustrates something of the scale of problems in providing for them.

The lowest bell diagram, for 2009, reflects the current surge in construction development in Qatar, though there are other managerial and service personnel also working in the state. You will note how distorted the diagram is within the working age groups, particularly within the younger age groups for both men, though there is a smaller but significant increase in young women. The upper two bell diagrams, for 1989 and 1999 respectively and drawn at the same scale as for 2009, reflect the pace of development ten and twenty years prior to 2009.

There are a small number of statistics relating to those in tertiary education on the page looking at pressures on society.

This animation is intended to illustrate the differences between the 2010 and 2020 population figures. Note that the horizontal scale of this diagram is different from the three bell diagrams immediately above, but that the profile of the 2020 bell diagram is very similar to that of the 2009 bell diagram above it. It has been difficult to keep up with the way in which the national statistics are presented and, because of this it has not been possible to bring the above three bell diagrams up to date with a 2019 version. However, the population statistics for the years 2010 and 2010 have been published and are placed here as an animated gif rather than as separate illustrations. Redrawing the previous three diagrams will not necessarily make the illustration of the increasing population any more clear.

Having created the animation above to illustrate the differences between the 2010 and 2020 population statistics, it seemed a good idea to show the more dramatic differences between the four decades, even though the time differences are not quite the same. So, here is an animation showing the states of the populations at 1989, 1999, 2010 and 2020 as overlapping bell diagrams.

more to be written…

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Nationals

Qataris comprise the minority of the population in their own country and there have been suggested a number of national, strategic and economic reasons for them to increase their numbers. A projection of the 42,000 Qatari population given by the 1970 census at a net increase of 4.4% per annum, which is the figure used by the first planning team, would have given an indigenous population of approximately 99,371 in 1990, though the CSO would not confirm it at the time.

The Census figure for the total population in 2004 given above, 743,000, indicated an increase of over 6%. Bearing in mind that the Qatari increase is likely to be less than 4%, it can be seen that the level of ex-patriate development has been significantly higher than 6%, reflecting the spurt in economic activity in recent years. If this growth has been unplanned for in terms of the infrastructure, there will be significant problems with housing and other provisions to service the increasing ex-patriate community. Although this economic activity benefits nationals, it increases other socio-cultural pressures on them, an issue that will be discussed elsewhere.

The chart that follows examines alternative Qatari populations brought about by different rates of growth which, in the early seventies, seemed a reasonable spread to the consultants brought in to plan the State for the first time. It now appears that the rates of growth – births less deaths – were over-estimated. I have included it for its historical interest and would be interested to have access to the figures which would indicate the correct projections. I have also projected the figures to 2020 in order to bring them up to date.

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Qatari population projections based on the 1970 Census and alternative growth factors

When examined against the growth rates that were determined later, these rates can be seen to have favoured greater expansion. At the time it was thought better to err on greater rather than lesser rates, but even then this chart might usefully have incorporated lesser rates.

Year	3.90%	4.00%	4.10%	4.20%	4.30%	4.40%	4.50%	4.60%	4.70%
1970	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000	42,000
1971	43,638	43,680	43,722	43,764	43,806	43,848	43,890	43,932	43,974
1972	45,340	45,427	45,515	45,602	45,690	45,777	45,865	45,953	46,041
1973	47,108	47,244	47,381	47,517	47,654	47,792	47,929	48,067	48,205
1974	48,945	49,134	49,323	49,513	49,703	49,894	50,086	50,278	50,470
1975	50,854	51,099	51,346	51,593	51,841	52,090	52,340	52,591	52,842
1976	52,838	53,143	53,451	53,760	54,070	54,382	54,695	55,010	55,326
1977	54,898	55,269	55,642	56,017	56,395	56,774	57,156	57,540	57,926
1978	57,039	53,143	57,924	58,370	58,820	59,273	59,728	60,187	60,649
1979	59,264	59,779	60,298	60,822	61,349	61,880	62,416	62,956	63,499
1980	61,575	62,170	62,771	63,376	63,987	64,603	65,225	65,852	66,484
1981	63,976	64,657	65,344	66,038	66,739	67,446	68,160	68,881	69,609
1982	66,472	67,243	68,023	68,812	69,608	70,413	71,227	72,049	72,880
1983	69,064	69,933	70,812	71,702	72,601	73,512	74,432	75,364	76,306
1984	71,757	72,730	73,716	74,713	75,723	76,746	77,782	78,830	79,892
1985	74,566	75,640	76,738	77,851	78,979	80,123	81,282	82,456	83,647
1986	77,464	78,665	79,884	81,121	82,376	83,648	84,940	86,249	87,578
1987	80,485	81,812	83,159	84,528	85,918	87,329	88,762	90,217	91,694
1988	83,624	85,084	86,569	88,078	89,612	91,171	92,756	94,367	96,004
1989	86,885	88,488	90,118	91,777	93,465	95,183	96,930	98,708	100,516
1990	90,273	92,027	93,813	95,632	97,484	99,371	101,292	103,248	105,241
1991	93,794	95,708	97,660	99,649	101,676	103,743	105,850	107,998	110,187
1992	97,452	99,537	101,664	103,834	106,048	108,308	110,613	112,966	115,366
1993	101,253	103,518	105,832	108,195	110,608	113,073	115,591	118,162	120,788
1994	105,202	107,659	110,171	112,739	115,365	118,049	120,793	123,598	126,465
1995	109,304	111,965	114,688	117,474	120,325	123,243	126,228	129,283	132,409
1996	113,567	116,444	119,390	122,408	125,499	128,666	131,909	135,230	138,632
1997	117,996	121,101	124,285	127,549	130,896	134,327	137,844	141,451	145,148
1998	122,598	125,946	129,381	132,906	136,524	140,237	144,047	147,957	151,969
1999	127,380	130,983	134,685	138,488	142,395	146,408	150,530	154,763	159,112
2000	132,347	136,223	140,207	144,305	148,518	152,850	157,303	161,882	166,590
2001	137,509	141,672	145,956	150,366	154,904	159,575	164,382	169,329	174,420
2002	142,872	147,338	151,940	156,681	161,565	166,596	171,779	177,118	182,618
2003	148,444	153,232	158,170	163,262	168,512	173,926	179,509	185,266	191,201
2004	154,233	159,361	164,655	170,119	175,758	181,579	187,587	193,788	200,187
2005	160,248	165,736	171,406	177,264	183,316	189,569	196,029	202,702	209,596
2006	166,498	172,365	178,433	184,709	191,198	197,910	204,850	212,026	219,447
2007	172,991	179,260	185,749	192,466	199,420	206,618	214,068	221,780	229,761
2008	179,738	186,430	193,365	200,550	207,995	215,709	223,701	231,981	240,560
2009	186,748	193,887	201,293	208,973	216,939	225,200	233,768	242,653	251,866
2010	194,031	201,643	209,546	217,750	226,267	235,109	244,288	253,815	263,704
2011	201,598	209,709	218,137	226,896	235,997	245,454	255,280	265,490	276,098
2012	209,461	218,097	227,081	236,426	246,145	256,254	266,768	277,703	289,074
2013	217,630	226,821	236,391	246,356	256,729	267,529	278,773	290,477	302,661
2014	226,117	235,894	246,084	256,702	267,768	279,301	291,318	303,839	316,886
2015	234,936	245,329	256,172	267,483	279,282	291,589	304,426	317,816	331,780
2016	244,098	255,143	266,675	278,718	291,291	304,419	318,126	332,435	347,373
2017	253,618	265,348	277,609	290,424	303,817	317,814	332,441	347,727	363,700
2018	263,509	275,962	288,991	302,622	316,881	331,798	347,401	363,722	380,794
2019	273,786	287,001	300,840	315,332	330,507	346,397	363,034	380,454	398,691
2020	284,464	298,481	313,174	328,576	344,719	361,638	379,371	397,955	417,430

The CSO have, however, stated that they were estimating on the basis of a net increase of Qataris at a rate of 4.1% into the middle nineteen-nineties dropping to 3.9% by the turn of the century – the difficulty being that they would not state the date and figure from which this is projected. However, if it is assumed that the projections are made from 1970 on the basis of the British Government assisted census, and that the rate is reduced from 1993 to 2000 as they suggest, then the Qatari population at the end of the millennium was somewhere in the region of 138,850.

This is, of course, speculation but, if that figure of 138,850 is assumed for the end of the century, and the same rate of increase – 3.9% – also assumed, then there would be, at the end of 2011, 203,500 Qataris in the population of the peninsula. If this figure were to be correct, then the percentage of Qataris in the population would be 11.9%. These figures are much lower than appear to be used elsewhere and should be regarded with caution.

If this exercise is repeated for the end of 2012 it would suggest a national population of 211,500 with a proportion of the overall population reduced to 11.5%.

There is another cross-check which can be made, gives an interesting result, but is inaccurate and should not be taken as definitive. For the year 2010 above, the 4.1% increase computes that there is an increase in Qatari population from 2009 of 209,546 less 201,293, which is 8,253. However, the stated registered births over deaths given by the Statistics Authority is 7,733 less 673, which is 7,060, representing a 3.37% increase, lower than all the theoretical rates for the increase of nationals given.

Having said that, the percentages suggested by the CSO, although high, are in line with published figures for the area which suggested that Saudi Arabia’s and the Gulf States’ indigenous populations are rising at a rate of between three and four per cent per annum. The Royal family – the Al Thani qabila, of whom it is guessed that, in 1990, there would be about five per cent of the Qataris or 4,700 – are thought to have a higher rate of natural increase and above-average sized families, as well as a slight preponderance of females over males; but again there are no published figures to confirm this. I should add here that the American Library of Congress have suggested that the figure might have been 20,000 in the early 1990s, though it seems an unrealistically high figure.

Generally, the figures are disturbing in that they demonstrate rapid expansion as well as lack of consistency. Both conditions are extremely difficult to plan for. If the numbers of Qataris are assumed to be correct at 94,000 in 1990 then they will have been 80,000 at the time of the 1986 census, assuming the lower rate of a 4.1% of increase. If the CSO’s belief – that there was in 1989 a population of well over 400,000 – is correct, then it would not be unrealistic to assume a 1990 total population of at least, say, 406,000 – an increase since the census of 36,000. But 14,000 of this figure would be Qataris, leaving a net increase of at least 22,000 expatriates over the four year period during which there has been a significant downturn in the economic activity of the State. Admittedly the rate of increase of the expatriate population would be much lower than the rate up to 1986, but the fact that it is increasing at all is surprising.

To put the problems associated with population figures in some form of perspective, it is instructive to look at the potential expansion of Iran on the other side of the Gulf. The existing population is approximately 50 million which, if present trends continue, will increase to 140 million in thirty-three years time, the majority of whom will be Iranians. The concern of the Qataris as well as the other Arabs of the Gulf and Saudi Arabia can be readily appreciated.

In 2005 the Planning Council believed that the million mark would be met in 2017. It is always difficult to make an assessment of future trends, the further ahead the more difficult, though the Kuwait-based Global Investment House believed that this figure will be met much earlier, the increase in economic activity in the early years of the twenty-first century being the reason for this. However, 2008 saw a dramatic reversal of economic activity world-wide and this is having its effect felt in the Gulf as elsewhere. One of the most likely consequences will be a reduction in construction activities which will, in turn, be reflected in a smaller expatriate population.

Statistics can be difficult to deal with as they can be made to demonstrate a variety of different trends and results, either accidentally or intentionally. The main issue with projections of the sort being debated relates to the basis for the calculations. Previous calculations were based on ranges of possibilities in order to try to reflect the different socio-economic growth strategies likely to produce change. One of the greatest problems lies with the State’s general ability to exercise control on all the factors governing change. But with the global economic factors now operating, there wil be significant factors outside the State’s control; and these are complicated by the socio-political factors operating in the region, some of which have been noted on other pages of these notes.

Economic activity over the last thirty years has been particularly expansionist in character and, to some extent, has fed on itself, as has very much been the case in Dubai whose construction activities have reflected that State’s perceived need to produce a sound economic basis for continuing development in the light of its small natural reserves compared with its neighbours, particularly Abu Dhabi. The economy is not balanced and there is, as yet, no range of integrated activities other than construction that are sufficient for the country to operate a stable economy. This paper, or note, deals only with population, but it it necessary to look at the wider social factors that will influence the way the economy might be established – if, of course, there ever is to be a stable state. Many authorities believe in there being a continuum of instability, the State continually attempting to achieve an illusory, theoretical balance, though this might be argued for most countries.

Before leaving this review of population statistics, I should add the figures produced for another study, this one carried out by the Shankland Cox Partnership, working for the Ministry of Municipal Affairs, and produced for the 1981 William L. Pereira Associates Structure Plan.

These figures are likely to have been based on the 1970 Census together with the previous work of Llewelyn-Davies who developed their projections in the early 1970s. The figures also rely on previous work by WLPA and, for the purpose of this note, it is important to understand that the figures are based on a medium growth rate – but also that population growth figures are going to be more accurate for the national population than for the expatriate population as that figure will be dependent upon oil and gas production together with industrial and construction industries and allied development. Curiously, there is a wide divergence of figures for Qataris given in at least one study, the numbers for 1972 ranging from 30,000 to 56,000, though 42,000 being eventually used.

In accordance with the medium growth forecast, you will see that the figures given for Qatari nationals in 1980, 1990 and 2000 are less than those given above and based on 4.1% increase. In round figures respectively – 56,000, 84,000 and 125,000 instead of 83,000, 94,000 and 140,000 – a considerable difference. Notice too, that these figures are suggested for the Doha area, and not the whole of the country.

For those with an interest, the Qatar population statistics for 2020 – ‘General Population, Housing and Establishments Census 2020’ – have been published in significant detail, but I have not yet been able to look through the details.

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Qatari population projections suggested by two planning consultancies

Doha area population by nationality – 1980	Number	Percentage
Qatari nationals	56,000	30%
Non-Qatari families	87,000	46%
Non-Qatari bachelors	47,000	24%

Doha area population by nationality – 1990	Number	Percentage
Qatari nationals	84,000	30%
Non-Qatari families	152,000	54%
Non-Qatari bachelors	46,200	16%

Doha area population by nationality – 2000	Number	Percentage
Qatari nationals	125,000	33%
Non-Qatari families	205,000	55%
Non-Qatari bachelors	45,000	12%

The 1980 figure showing a population of 190,000 for the Doha area was considered by the consultants to represent around 85% of the total population of the peninsula of 220,000 at that time. If, as was suggested by the consultants, 125,000 Qatari nationals are taken to represent 85% of the total Qatari population, then their total population would have been 147,000 in the year 2000.

Projecting the figure of 147,000 at a rate of births over deaths of 4.1% – a rate which is, perhaps, over-generous – then the Qatar national population in 2010 would have been 220,000 and, in 2012, 238,000. At the lower rate of growth of 3.5%, the totals in 2010 and 2012 would have been 207,000 and 222,000 respectively. The total population for the end of 2012 was given by the Qatar Statistics Authority as 1,845,000 which suggests that, based on the 1980 estimates and a 4.1% growth rate, at most Qatari nationals represent around 12.9% of the total population. If the Qatari growth rate is only 3.5%, then their percentage of the total population would be 11.9%.

The figures for the Qatari national population are not published in their entirety. However, as a very rough cross-check, the figures published for Qataris over the age of ten have been published for April 2010 in the ‘Census for Population and Housing and Establishments 2010’:

Qatari population 10 years of age and over – 2010	Male	Female	Total
Qatari nationals	85,819	88,460	174,279

The official figures for the total population for the month of April 2010 are:

Total population	Male	Female	Total
Qataris and non-Qataris	1,270,968	399,421	1,670,389

The population figures for the 0 to 9 year olds for 2010 are not available, but those for 2009 are given in one of the bell diagrams above giving total population figures for the 0 to 9 year olds as:

Children in the age group 0 to 9 incl. – 2009	Male	Female	Total
Total 0 to 4	39,053	36,489	75,542
Total 5 to 9	43,541	41,069	84,610
Total Qataris and non-Qataris	82,594	77,558	160,152

Other statistics suggest that births are in the ratio of 2:3, Qataris to non-Qataris. While this does not necessarily hold true for the whole of the 0 to 10 age group, it might be used for this exercise. So, 40% of, say 160,000 would suggest 64,000 Qatari children of ages between 0 and 9.

Total Qatari population estimate for 2010	0 to 9	10 and over	Total
Total male and female Qataris	64,000	174,000	238,000

While this methodology is obviously contentious, it does suggest that the national population figures reached by looking at the statistics in different ways, and with not having access to the relevant data, might safely be considered to be in the region of 238,000, or 13% of the total population, at the end of 2010.

Since making the notes above there is, in 2022, the possibility of a degree of comparison by the publication of the similar groupings in the 2020 ‘Qatar Census Final Results’ for Qataris over ten years of age:

Qatari population 10 years of age and over	Male	Female	Total
Qatari nationals – 2020	119,412	126,844	246,256
Qatari nationals – 2010	85,819	88,460	174,279

Showing a difference over the ten years from 2010 to 2020 of:

Qatari population for 10 years and over – difference between 2010 and 2020	Male	Female	Total
Qatari nationals	33,593	38,384	71,977

this suggesting an annual increase rate for the national population over the ten year period – if it is assumed that Qataris within the age range of 0 to 9 years have a similar percentage increase as those of 10 years of age and over – of 3.52% per annum.

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Other estimates of the national population

It really is difficult to select the right data in order to come up with an accurate figure for the national population. However, an article published in the Spring of 2015 looked at the national population from a more academic basis than was developed on this page, and suggested there would have been a Qatari population of around 290,000 in early 2015 – which might be extrapolated to around 310,000 at the end of 2016. Contrasting with this, if my suggestion of a natural increase, made below, of 3.7% is used on the estimate of a 238,000 national population in 2010, then it might be anticipated that there will be a Qatari population of 296,000 at the end of 2016.

One final note of warning relating to problems created by selective guesswork is that the figure might be considerably lower. Crudely, if the number of Qataris living in Doha in 1980 was 55,000, as suggested above is correct, and if that figure represented 85% of their total population, then there would have been 66,000 Qataris in 1980. If the Qatari population growth rate given by the Qatar government’s Qatar Information Exchange for the years 1985 to 2009 is taken and averaged, it suggests that Qatari population growth is around 3.7% per annum. If this is applied to the 66,000 estimate for 1980, then there would have been a Qatari population of around 196,000 in 2010 and 244,000 in 2016. It can be seen that these crude estimates are considerably lower than the above-mentioned article suggests.

This warning may be supported by a comment in a 2012 report of the Permanent Population Committee noting that the total fertility rate in Qatari women has declined in recent times from 4.6% in 2004 to 3.6% in 2010 due to the rise in women’s enrolment rates in higher education and their increasing contribution to economic activity within the State, issues that are looked at on another page.

Since the foregoing note was written, another source has made an estimate of the numbers of nationalities comprising the population of Qatar. In the process of looking at the breakdown, the report has made an estimate of the native Qatari population for 2017.

Using the ‘Labor Force Survey, Second Quarter (Q2) 2016’ – provided by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics – together with the ‘Woman and Man In the State of Qatar – A Statistical Profile 2014’ – provided jointly by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics and the Ministry of Administrative Development Labor and Social Affairs – the report suggests a total population of 313,000 Qataris in mid-2016 – 12.6% or an eighth of the June 2016 population. If this figure is compared with the table above, it suggests that the annual rate of increase of Qataris, based on the 1970 figures, was 4.5% to the middle of 2016, a figure which conflicts with the State’s estimates of natural increase.

Nevertheless, the different estimates of numbers and rates of net increase give similar proportions of national to overall population of around an eighth. Obviously this is likely to increase as the government is able to fulfil its intent to reduce its dependence on expatriate labour.

In order to give another perspective on the numbers of expatriates there are in Qatar, compared with nationals, the report shows that almost 65% of the total population comes from five countries – India, Nepal, Bangladesh, Philippines and Sri Lanka, none of them Arab countries – and, including Qataris, significantly less than a third of the peninsula’s population is Arab.

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The al-Thani family

Over the years there has been considerable interest in learning the numbers there are of the al-Thani family and their percentage of the national population. While the Qatar Statistics Authority is likely to have an accurate understanding of its natural rate of increase and total numbers, these are not available for a number of reasons.

Further up the page I have made a note suggesting that there might have been 4,700 members of the al-Thani family in 1990, representing 5.0% of the national population, but there are other estimates.

The Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress, as part of the Country Studies/Area Handbook Series sponsored by the U.S. Department of the Army between 1986 and 1998, publishes information on much of the world and has a short note including some information relating to the al-Thani family. Their estimate quotes no sources but suggests that, in 1990, there were around 20,000 members of the family. I have suggested above that estimates of the national population in 1990 gave it as 99,371, this being based on a births over deaths increase of 4.4%, but suggested that this might have been an over-estimation of the rate of natural increase. The probability that the rate would have been less than 4.0% would have produced a national population of no more than 92,000 in 1990.

For a number of reasons it is entirely probable that the natural rate of increase of the al-Thani family would have been greater than that of the general national population, though it is impossible to guess what a sensible rate might be. If there were, as the note suggests, 20,000 al-Thani in 1990, they would have represented at least 21.74% of the national population at that date. If this figure was to be taken and a rate of natural increase taken of 4.0%, then there would have been, in 2012, 47,398 members of the family. If the rate were to be assumed to be higher than the general rate for Qataris, say, 4.5% then, in 2012, there would have been 52,673 members of the family. And, if this is so, then the al-Thani family would have represented, in 2012, 23.73% – almost a quarter – of the total national population estimated at 222,000. This coincides roughly with estimates seen elsewhere, that the al-Thani family represent a fifth of the national population.

If, on the other hand, the al-Thani population was 4,700 in 1990, it would have become 11,140 at a natural increase of 4.0%, or 12,378 at a natural increase of 4.5% – both at 2012 – this representing 5.0% and 5.6% of the national population respectively at that date.

While there is no official estimate of the numbers of al-Thani in the national population, it is also true that there is no breakdown of males and females in their population. However, it would seem there may be a slight preponderance of males to females if the national trend for Qataris is followed. According to the statistics there were around 4% more live births for males than females in the 2000-2009 period – though, as noted above, there were 3.2% more Qatari females than males aged from ten upwards in the national population.

It must be borne in mind that the above figures are all estimates in the absence of official published figures.

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Expatriates

Foreigners form much of the workforce within the country and this is likely to be so for the foreseeable future. At its simplest, labour is brought in from a number of countries such as the Indian sub-continent, the Far East, Egypt and some Arab countries for short term contracts, middle management from the Indian sub-continent, Jordan, Egypt and Europe, and top management from a variety of Arabic countries and Europe and the United States.

If, as stated above, the numbers of expatriates are increasing, then it is likely to mean that it is expatriates fulfilling the roles generally of servants and maids, obtaining salaries in the region of Qrs.400 or $110 per month, who are coming into the country to service the domestic requirements of the indigenous and, to a minor extent, the expatriate populations. Incidentally, it is surprising how many expatriates suddenly find themselves financially able to hire expatriate servants – but I shall write about this on the socio-cultural page.

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View of future balance

The lack of a political balance within the Middle East generally, and the Gulf in particular, makes it difficult to foretell future populations within Qatar. The problems associated with the dramatic rise and fall of oil prices caused a great number of difficulties for the Gulf States in organising their economies to continue to perform as their early promise had suggested. The more serious ramifications of the West’s perceived interference in Arabic affairs has created instability that will take years to resolve if, in fact, it is possible to resolve it to the benefit of the majority of the inhabitants at all.

Events at the north of the Gulf have suggested that Kuwait will attempt to redevelop itself with a population of half that which it had prior to its invasion by Iraq. This reduction in population is likely to be at the expense of the Palestinians – both those who were born there and those who came later – as well as other Arab nationals who have made a home there. In addition it is believed that large numbers of the service population from other countries – particularly from the Indian sub-continent and the Far East – may be encouraged to leave throwing more of the burden of the work on the indigenous Kuwaiti population. It is anticipated that this will be resisted by those countries affected as there is a real need to receive the monies remitted by their nationals to support the national economies.

The issues relating to population groupings are many, revolving around social, religious, ethical, political and other areas of debate and decision. If Kuwait is to attempt to change itself radically then it is probable that the opportunity might be taken in other Gulf States, including Qatar, to take similar steps which will affect the size of its population.

Militating against this it is argued that there will be many factors, particularly those which will emanate from the national population who will wish to see their accommodation rented, their imports purchased, and a variety of services provided for them as well as the influence of the American base now established on Qatar.

There are two basic factors that require ex-patriates within the Gulf States: firstly, there is the need to obtain personnel with the skills that do not, at present, exist within the State and, secondly, there is the need to introduce personnel who will execute those tasks that the nationals are unwilling to carry out themselves. In this there is little difference between Qatar and many other States in the world. There is no ability for expatriates to settle in Qatar as this is actively discouraged. There are those who live in Qatar to carry out the work for which they are contracted; some are permitted to enter the country to visit their relations; there is a very small amount of tourism, and the only other visitors are those making ad hoc visits in connection with business.

Although it seems now to be changing, there has been an active policy to restrict long term residency of expatriates in Qatar, as in the other Gulf States, for some time as it is seen that ex-patriates are a drain on limited resources – resources that should be utilised for the benefit of the nationals. There is also a general political commitment to assist poor Islamic and other countries as well as provide a refuge for stateless persons. This has resulted in a series of policies to provide labour that varies from time to time in response to agreements made between Governments and attitudes within Qatar. Palestinians, for instance, comprise a resource of individuals whom it is not possible to repatriate and they form a long term core of educated personnel who require jobs in Qatar. As Qataris are generally being educated to middle management, professional levels and above, it is likely that the trend for services to be provided by foreigners will continue for decades, and that there will continue to be increasing conflicts between the indigenous and expatriate populations for the limited number of jobs available. This problem has been recognised in other Gulf States for some time and has led to a series of policies which will benefit the indigenous populations, or which will even disbenefit the expatriate populations in the region.

It is difficult to know what will happen in the future. The present Government has expanded the country dramatically and there is significant development taking place. Dubai, which does not have the oil and gas that Qatar has, is developing its tourist, sports and second homes industries with Qatar following suit, albeit on a more modest scale perhaps, in Qatar’s case, in an effort to spread the base on which income is derived as well as to create a different cross section of its society.

Development is proceeding rapidly. The United Development Company began the Pearl-Qatar project in 2004 and intends to complete it by 2009, the first phase being ready for occupancy in 2006. Covering 400 hectares of reclaimed land it is the largest existing international real estate venture and intends to offer investors freehold. The development comprises a variety of residential types, a total of eight hundred beds in a number of five-star hotels, marinas, schools and retail facilities. These two satellite photographs were taken of it in September 2004 and November 2005 respectively.

In December 2005, Qatari state company, Qatari Diar, announced a five billion Dollar housing project that will be the largest in Qatar. Lusail will cover 3,500 hectares, house around 200,000 people, and is scheduled for completion by 2010. It is planned to have two residential zones, commercial and leisure centres, two golf courses, hotels, hospitals and two ports, as well as an artificial lake. It is similar to the existing Pearl development in that it is aimed at foreign investors who would be allowed to lease property for a period of ninety-nine years, with an option to renew.

Qatar Diar and Pearl-Qatar both state that one of their aims is to produce a balanced community in their developments, albeit an up-market community. But there is always a problem with this type of determinism. There are two basic difficulties:

• that of producing an integrated community from scratch, and the
• character of the community planned.

It is widely recognised that communities work best when established over a long period of time and contain all those elements necessary for their effective socio-economic operation. Up-market developments of the type planned don’t naturally contain these elements, particularly with the heavy servicing required. Communities are generally accepted as being societies that have a considerable amount of internal communication. You would not anticipate this in a community established rapidly and whose make-up is governed by the ability to afford the residential units on offer and with the owners coming from many different countries.

It is also probable that the housing is likely to appeal to people who would not make permanent homes there, if this follows the experience of countries such as Dubai and Malta that have produced similar developments, and where the housing is considered to be an investment first, and a home second. Even when the housing is leased to enable owners to obtain a return on their investment, this produces communities that are never fully occupied. This reflects both on the character of the estates in terms of visible activity, as well as on their ability to survive economically as self-contained operations.

The character of the State is developing and changing, the policies it designs enabling this progress. But there is a feeling in the Gulf that there has to be a wider understanding of the problems created by the character of the disbalanced population as well as by the future socio-cultural aspirations and characteristics of the national population. You have to bear in mind that, generally, Qataris have significant disposable incomes nowadays and there is an increasingly aggressive advertising operation – both overt and covert – focussed on them. As an outsider it seems impossible to understand how these will develop bearing in mind the range of pressures brought about by the crudely defined extremes of fundamentalism on the one hand and the West’s influence on the other.

It must be assumed that the ad hoc policies which determine the numbers of ex-patriates within the country will continue to vary depending upon relatively short term circumstance. From the State’s point of view there is much to commend such a policy but, from the long term point of view – one that will establish the overall character of the State – there are additional problems related to the need to plan for the future within the constraints of the religio-political situation of the Arabian peninsula.

It is May 2022 and the above notes were written many years ago. It is not my intention to re-write them. But it might be useful to add a rider based on the pressures now developing with regard to the forthcoming FIFA World Cup football games together with other events now being established within the peninsula.

As part of its long term development planning, the State is expanding its links to the outside world using a number of policies encouraging its attractiveness as both a place to visit and to live. In a sense this is similar to the way in which Dubai is developing.

Advertising is being shown all over the world suggesting that not only is Qatar a place to visit for the football games, but that it is more than this, a place to stay, a place to rest and a place to enjoy. The modelling suggests that, with a population of around 2.7 million, 1.7 million are likely to visit for the games with, perhaps, 0.5 million on the busiest days. But, more significantly those who visit, buttressed by those who use social media, will have a significant effect on understanding the benefits of visiting or staying in Qatar with the suggestion that it will be not only a recreational centre, but also an excellent business location for those seeing prospects not just in the region, but also as a logical centre linking the far east and the west.

The days of traditional land ownership based on migration and settlement have gone. Since the 1960s at least, there has been an active real estate market with considerable speculation in planning and development. Now it is foreseen that many will wish to benefit with both businesses requiring office space and foreigners wanting to rent or buy residential properties in order to take advantage of the resources existing and planned.

At the time of writing this note, the Gross Leasable Area of office stock is estimated to stand at 5.1 sq.m. with a further 1.26 sq.m available by the summer of 2023. Development Finance Institutions together with up-market residential requirements are likely to require increasing accommodation along with the personnel to service them, in line with government long term strategies.

What can not be known at this point in time is how Qatar’s growth and character will be affected by a number of issues, including but not limited to: the developing oil and gas difficulties; existing and development strategies elsewhere in the Gulf, particularly Dubai; those visiting and the reporting of their experiences during 2022; and by the continuing political criticisms of Qatar.

More to be written…